Making Excuses is a Disservice to Curlin Too

All this talk about Rachel Alexandra not going to Oak Tree for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup isn’t just about Rachel Alexandra.  It’s also about Curlin’s legacy, and Jess Jackson inability to admit defeat.

Once upon a time, Jess Jackson thought he had a versatile horse in Curlin.  That’s why, after the colt’s three-year-old season, he brought him back as four-year-old, while his closest competitors, Hard Spun, Street Sense, and Any Given Saturday all retired.

It was a huge financial risk, and I respected Jackson for taking it—despite his sad need to be constantly in the spotlight.  But the man who decided to let Curlin race in 2008 was a competitor, a sportsman who thought he had a multidimensional horse who could rise to the status of undisputed world champion, one who could dominate on any racetrack.

That’s a different Jess Jackson than the one we see now who never passes up an opportunity bash synthetic racing surfaces.  Somewhere along the way, versatility lots its worthiness to Jackson.  He’d entertained fantasies of bringing Curlin to Australia, Japan, and even running in the Arc.  Those racetracks wouldn’t have behaved like Churchill Downs.

To me, it’s not fair to Curlin when people make excuses for him.  Especially when they question the significance of races he lost, or try to discredit the horses that beat him.  Curlin the racehorse was a trooper.  He was tolerant and perseverant and never turned from a challenge.  Curlin the racehorse, if he could talk, would not whine and complain the way his owner does.  He would relished the challenged, and he would have thanked Raven’s Pass for an honest race.

Jess Jackson is a 78 year old man.  Why is it that in all that time he hasn’t learned how to lose gracefully?

Top Two-Year-Olds Thus Far

Although spring seems a long ways off, the purse winnings earned in 2-year-old graded stakes competition this summer and fall will count toward whether or not prospective runners ultimately qualify for next year’s Kentucky Derby.

This means several horses have already done enough to virtually guarantee their spots in next May’s race.  Lookin At Lucky heads this list, having amassed $270,000 at Del Mar in the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.  Other two-year-old colts who already have surpassed $100,000 in American graded stakes earning include Dublin (victorious in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga), D’ Funnybone (winner of the Belmont Futurity), and Backtalk.

Here are the top ten 2-year-old colts and geldings through September:

* Graded Stakes Earnings, Top Ten 2-year-old colts and geldings, 2009-09-31

Of course, 2009 has has taught us not to overlook the fillies.  For some, the search for next year’s Rachel Alexandra is already under way.  With that in mind, here is an expanded list that includes both males and females.

* Graded Stakes Earnings, Top Twenty 2-year-olds, 2009-09-31

The most impressive two-year-old fillies up to now have been a pair of Grade 1 winners in Mi Sueno and Hot Dixie Chick.

Zenyatta, a Glorified Pepper’s Pride?

Even though she broke the legendary Cigar’s record last season for most consecutive wins, few knowledgable horse racing fans will ever regard Pepper’s Pride as one of the greats.   That’s because while Cigar took on the best horse’s in the world from Dubai to New York, Pepper’s Pride basically never left her native New Mexico.  So despite her impressive consistency, the latter was quickly forgotten after she retired last season.

Here we go again.

The Louisville Courier-Journal reports that a Zenyatta vs. Rachel Alexandra meeting is more and more unlikely.

As we all know, Rachel Alexandra will not be at the Breeders’ Cup because it is being run on synthetics, and her owner Jess Jackson’s ego has yet to recover from the drubbing Curlin took in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

In a national conference call Monday, Jerry Moss, owner of Zenyatta, said he’d love for the two star females to meet. But he said such matchups are why the Breeders’ Cup was created.

Asked if he owed it to the sport for the two horses to meet somewhere, Moss said, “Well, I do. And the Breeders’ Cup was created for this kind of a circumstance. I’m sorry (Jackson) feels that way. I didn’t pick the place where the Breeders’ Cup is being run; I had nothing to do with that selection.

“… We happen to live in California, so that’s what we build around. And we do plan a lot around where the Breeders’ Cup is. If the Breeders’ Cup were in New York or Churchill Downs, we’d be all over the country.”

While Mr. Moss is correct in theory, the public simply does not agree with him in this case.  Whether or not the Breeders’ Cup was “supposed to” be considered a world championship meet, the event will not be perceived as such absent Rachel Alexandra.  Rachel Alexandra has won by larger margins against more impressive fields; in the event that she continues to do so between now and October, it really won’t matter that fans were “supposed to” view the Breeders’ Cup as an end-all and be-all.

Somehow I suspect Moss would have a different view if Zenyatta was beating the kinds of fields Rachel Alexandra faced in the Preakness and Haskell.  Yes, Zenyatta is undefeated–but her competition has more often than not been against subpar fields.  It’s understandable that Moss is concerned about protecting Zenyatta’s legacy, and that he doesn’t want to see Zenyatta suffer her first career loss in her last career race.  I fear, however, that Moss risks permanently damaging his mare’s reputation if he doesn’t give her a chance to prove she’s better than Rachel.

If only Jerry Moss had more faith in his horse.  It is not fair to Zenyatta to turn her into a glorified Pepper’s Pride.

Simplifiers and Synthetic Racetracks

“Beware the terrible simplifiers”

If you hate synthetic dirt tracks, there’s only one talking point you’ll ever need to memorize. Repeat after me: “Any and all racing surfaces that are not 100% true dirt will behave exactly like grass.” That’s all. End the conversation without giving it a second thought. Pay no mind to that huge list of great turf horses who run poorly on artificial dirt tracks. Don’t get bogged down in details, like the nuances among the half dozen varying kinds of synthetic racing surfaces. That stuff’s complicated and boring. Just jump to your own overly simplistic conclusions instead.

Depending on how good you are at being lazy, you can also go ahead and assume all artificial racing surfaces are equal to each other. The Midwestern polytracks at Keeneland, Arlington, and Woodbine are virtually identical to the Cushion track at Hollywood and the Pro-Ride at Santa Anita.

So let’s review.  Reductionist talking points center on two basic misconceptions: (1) that synthetic and turf tracks are basically interchangeable, and (2) that all artificial surfaces are equally identical to each other.

If such is your position, and if you truly believe in that watered-down picture of reality, then yesterday probably wasn’t the best day for you to try to put bets on races. Saturday’s two biggest races for three-year-olds each offered a grand opportunity for synthetics bashers to hammer home these points once and for all.

Theory #1: Everything that’s not natural dirt will act just like natural grass

Synthetics specialist Hold Me Back brought an impressive Polytrack resume to the Grade II Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. Prior to Saturday he had never run on grass; but he sported a 3-for-4 lifetime record on synthetics; his only loss was a close second in the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.  Polytrack bashers insist that any racing surface that’s not real dirt will behave exactly the same as grass.  Hold Me Back should have been a lock then, right?

Oops–in actuality, the synthetics specialist showed little interest in the stretch and finished a distant fifth.  So much for Bogus Theory #1.

Theory #2: All varieties of synthetic surfaces are the same

For the past twelve months, Advice has dominated the Polytrack all-weather surfaces at Arlington Park and Keeneland.  Heading into Saturday’s Grade II Swaps Stakes, Advice had hit the board in four out of his five starts on synthetic tracks. His highest speed figure came in April in Keeneland’s Grade II Lexington States.  Not only did Advice spoil the eagerly-awaited comeback of  Breeders’ Cup runner-up Square Eddie, the electrifying win propelled Advice into a qualifying spot for the Kentucky Derby.  In his three starts off of synthetic surfaces, Advice never hit the board.  Obviously, then, this horse was a synthetics connoisseur.  Surely he’d feel right at home on the Cat Hollywood Park, since these fake tracks are all just generic replicas of one another anyway.  It must have looked like a no-brainer to someone who hadn’t done his homework.  I imagine that these dismayed simplifiers must have been utterly baffled as they watched Advice cross the finish line in dead last.

So much for Bogus Theory #2!

Psyched about the YUM! Brands Derby?

I hear a lot of people are happy for the Blackberry Preakness Stakes because it finally has a sponsor.  I guaranteed it will eventually be just the Blackberry Stakes. And Blackberry (or whoever picks it up) will follow the same path corporate sponsorship always does when fans have a sentimental attachment to the old title.

Initially sponsors always allow the familiar name to appear simultaneously along side their own.  Example: For 30 years the classic 4th of July NASCAR race at Daytona was called the Firecracker 400.  When Pepsi decided to sponsor it in the 80s, they couldn’t just trash the “Firecracker” name overnight, so a 3-4 year transition phase ensued, during which it was the Pepsi Firecracker 400.  By 1989 people had grown accustomed to seeing “Pepsi” associated with the race, but the problem was everyone still called it the Firecracker 400, which meant Pepsi’s investment wasn’t paying off.  So that year they dropped the term “Firecracker” that year, and by the mid-1990s everyone was referring to the event as the Pepsi 400.

The same formula has gone on with the renaming of major college bowl games over the last twenty years.  Chic-Filet wasn’t going to call it the Chic-Filet Peach Bowl forever.  (That sounded retarded anyway).

So… who’s psyched about the YUM! Brands Derby?

Better Talk Now Takes Aim at Two Records

On the 4th of July, Better Talk Now has a chance to make history in the Grade I United Nations Stakes at Monmouth Park.

With a victory, the ten-year-old gelding can become the oldest horse to ever win an American graded stakes race—much less a Grade I—surpassing John Henry, The Tin Man, Super Diamond, and John’s Call.

In addition, a win on Saturday would catapult Better Talk Now into the lead for most American Grade I wins among active horses.  Currently, he is part of a five-way-tie with Zenyatta, Stardom Bound, Indian Blessing, and Einstein.

Here is a full list of active horses with two or more victories in American Grade I stakes races.

• Most American Grade I Wins among active horses

Other Grade I winners entered in the U.N. Stakes include Presious Passion, Court Vision, and Brass Hat, as well as the ever-dangerous Spice Route—who defeated Better Talk Now earlier this year in the Grade II Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland.

Rachel Alexandra Controls Desiny: More to Lose, Less to Gain by Facing Zenyatta

This past Saturday, Rachel Alexandra posted another twenty-length victory over rival 3-year-old fillies in the Grade I Mother Goose Stakes.  Twenty minutes later, Zenyatta kept her undefeated record alive by winning the Grade I Vanity Handicap.

Although each victory was impressive in its own way, the quality of challengers in both fields was a tad underwhelming.  Top fillies Don’t Forget Gil, Justwhistledixie, and Dream Play all had been aiming for the Mother Goose, only to steer away when word came that Rachel Alexandra would be joining them.  Similarly, Zenyatta’s toughest threat in the west wanted no part of rematching her this past weekend; the impressive four-year-old Life is Sweet would rather take her chances against open company in the upcoming Hollywoood Gold Cup.

The avoidance of Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra on the part of other top-tier competitors makes a duel between the two of them seem like a must.  Unfortunately for the fans, these two ladies excel in almost exactly opposite circumstances.  Rachel Alexandra does most of her running on dirt, while Zenyatta’s victories have mostly come on dirt.  Moreover, Zenyatta’s connections have said that the detention barns at Belmont and tight turns at Saratoga would compromise her running style.

In both stables, the campaign to force the other come to them is now underway.  Jerry Moss, who owns Zenyatta, is using the same strategy IEAH Stables used last year: the logical championship and conclusion of the season is the Breeders’ Cup.

But Rachel Alexandra’s owner has a sour taste in his mouth when it comes to Santa Anita and its synthetic surface.  It was there, in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, that Jess Jackson’s two-time Horse of the Year Curlin failed to hit the board for the first time, in the final race of his career.  Now Jackson calls Santa Anita’s track “plastic” and vows that under no circumstances will Rachel Alexandra dignify California with her presence.

For now we simply have to wait and see who blinks first.  That may come down to which camp stands to lose more by backing down.

To be sure, their respective awards are safe even if they never square off.

1. Rachel Alexandra will be crowned American Champion Three-Year-Old Filly no matter what happens from here on out.
2. Zenyatta will win American Champion Older Female Horse if she wins the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic, and probably even if she does not.

The only way it will matter is if Horse of the Year is at stake–which it could be if (a) both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta win all of their races between now and October, and (b) no definitive front runner emerges among their male counterparts.

Whichever scenario unfolds, Zenyatta’s connections may be forced to confront legitimate foes at some point this season–whether its Rachel Alexandra in New York or the world’s top male horses in the Breeders’ Cup Classic remains to be seen.  Their only other option is to simply settle for two consecutive undefeated seasons without ever being crowned Horse of the Year.

Artificial Insemination: Good for the Sport, or Bad for Tradition?

It is for this reason that I’ve often thought Artificial Insemination would be great for the sport.  Once a horse’s DNA has been frozen, the financial risk associated with the fear of injury is gone.  That would eliminate the disturbing trend in racing where horses like Street Sense, Hard Spun, Big Brown, and Henrythenavigator get retired after their three-year-old seasons–or even, in the recent case of Street Hero, after their two-year-old seasons. Part of the reason the sport of thoroughbred racing can’t attract new fans is because as soon as a horse does something praiseworthy, he disappears from the public spotlight. So why are some so opposed to AI?

Here are four reasons given:

1. Tradition
The Jockey Club is a conservative organization that is wary of change. In this, it reflects the attitude of most Thoroughbred industry professionals who see the sport as one of tradition and heritage that should not be changed without compelling proof that change would bring improvement.

2. Genetic diversity
The likely result of allowing AI is that only the most popular stallions would be allowed to reproduce. Over time, the already genetically-limited Thoroughbred breed would suffer the loss of its extant diversifying bloodlines. The Jockey Club is entrusted with the task of safeguarding the breed and will not risk introducing practices that are not only theoretically harmful, but in fact have proven to be deleterious to other breeds (specifically, the American Quarter Horse and the Standardbred breeds).

3. Economics
Allowing AI (and assuming larger books of mares covered for a reduced number of stallions) would contribute to the loss of value of an individual stud cover. A live cover is subject to market economics because it is a limited commodity whose price depends, at least in part, on demand. Conversely, AI makes the product nearly limitless, logically reducing its value. Similarly, resulting foals would be devalued because of abundance – a situation that Thoroughbred sales companies wish to avoid. Further, allowing AI would alter the infrastructure of Thoroughbred breeding by reducing the need for transport services, off-site boarding of mares, small stallion farms, and myriad other segments of the Thoroughbred breeding industry.

4. Legality
Once the train is in motion, there’s no bringing it back to the station. There is no realistic way to “test” the practice without opening up The Jockey Club’s rules to lawsuits and infighting. This is the “slippery slope” argument: if a test by The Jockey Club were to allow AI for intercontinental matings, for example, breeders on the opposite coasts of the U.S. would argue that the test is discriminatory and arbitrary, and The Jockey Club would be forced to defend its case legally, with a likely outcome that by creating an exception to its rules, it would be required by the courts to drop any limitations and open the system entirely. If The Jockey Club opened AI to the industry, breeders would argue that the practice was stallion-centric and would fight for the ability to increase foal production from mares as well (by embryo transfer, for example), and the next lawsuit would argue for legalized cloning. Finally, The (American) Jockey Club’s registration policies follow the standards of other Thoroughbred stud books internationally. It does not have sole discretion to alter registration rules; doing so would create the equivalent of a constitutional crisis for the breed internationally.

Finish reading the full article about “the reasoning behind The Jockey Club prohibiting registration of foals conceived by artificial insemination.”

All 412 Triple Crown Nominees: Graded Stakes Earnings

I’ve been keeping track of graded stakes earnings this season since before earnings’ lists were readily available on reputable racing websites like KentuckyDerby.com and BloodHorse. Here is what I believe to be the only graded stakes earnings list available online of all 412 triple crown nominees.

• April5_Graded stakes earnings_all 412 Triple Crown noms

Graded stakes earnings are important this time of year because of their Derby implications. If more than twenty horses register for the Kentucky Derby (as nearly always happens) than horses’ graded-stakes earnings are used to break the tie. (This year, one caveat has been added to that rule—the winner of the Kempton Challenge gains an automatic berth into the Kentucky. As Mafaaz has now been shipped to Kentucky, and is training for this weekend’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, we can assume that horse’s connections will accept that free berth).

Over the years, some top contenders have been bumped due to insufficient earnings. Just last year, Denis of Cork had to wait for a late defection by Behindatthebar to get into the Derby.

Recently all the major horse racing websites have posted graded earnings lists. But if you’re like me, you still find it incredibly confusing to figure out who’s in and who’s out at this point. What I’ve found is that most sites usually omit horses from their graded earnings list if that horse’s connections have indicated they are no longer pointed toward the Derby. This is helpful in that it gives us some clarity regarding whether or not our favorite bubble horse is likely to make the field. The problem with that approach though is that sometimes connections’ change their minds, either because contingency plans fall through or perhaps because the horse runs better than expected after being taken off the trail.

More cynical fans suspect owners or trainers of deliberately misrepresenting their intentions, or even entering non-contenders with high graded stakes earnings, with the ultimate goal of keeping another horse out of the race. It was speculated on message boards last week that IEAH Stables may enter the fillies Stardom Bound and Laragh—not as legitimate contenders but simply to block top-tier three-year-old Dunkirk, thereby softening the competition for other IEAH horse, I Want Revenge.

The only horses truly and officially “off the Derby trail” are those who weren’t nominated for the Triple Crown. Even injuries can be embellished or exaggerated in order to give competitors false impressions.

*A note on international races: While I’m not sure how earnings calculated for graded stakes races in foreign countries, the way I’ve done it here is to use conversion rates from the exact dates that races were run. (That seemed most logical, if more time-consuming).

Three-year-old Graded Stakes Earnings, March 16, 2009

Another weekend of racing is in the books, including five more graded stakes races for three-year-old colts.  Graded stakes races are particularly relevant because of their Derby implications.  If more than twenty horses are entered in the Kentucky Derby, only the top nineteen, in graded stakes earnings, earn a berth. [1]

Currently, over half the horses in the top nineteen are considered “off the Derby trail” for a variety of reasons. Still, a number of top horses have more work to do in order to secure their spot in the race.  If the Derby were held next weekend, top horses such as Imperial Council, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk would not be invited.  Dunkirk has the most work to do of them all, as he has yet to run in a graded stakes race, making the Florida Derby a virtual must-win for him.

Here is a list of three-year-olds according to their career graded stakes earnings.

* Graded Stakes Earnings, 2009-03-16

Horses are listed by their total earnings in Graded stakes competition. I’ve limited this list to American triple-crown nominated horses, except when international horses have been specifically nominated for the triple crown races. [2]

[1] The twentieth and final bid is reserved for the winner of the Kempton challenge, to be held this Wednesday in London, England.

[2] Bushranger, Mastercraftsman, Nasqoos, and Westphalia are the lone exceptions. These four horses remain on the list despite not having been nominated for the American triple crown races. I include them in order to give some frame of reference through which we can compare the top American and European horses. Some racing fans are annoyed by the automatic inclusion of the 2009 Kempton Challenge winner in this year’s Kentucky Derby. While I agree this was not the way to do it, luring top-caliber European three-year-olds to the Kentucky Derby is a worthwhile project, given that Bushranger and Mastercraftsman top all American triple crown hopefuls but one (Pioneerof the Nile).